International oil price shocks, chemical products lost

On several trading days last week, international oil prices showed a trend of skyrocketing prices. On April 6th, affected by Saudi Arabia’s renewed adjustment to the impact of Asian crude oil prices, the Brent crude oil futures price for delivery in May hit US$56.90 per barrel, and the US WTI crude oil price once touched US$50.97 per barrel, both gaining over 3%. %, the largest one-day percentage increase since February this year.

On the 7th, international oil prices continued to rise. On the 8th, international crude oil prices plummeted. As of the close of the trading day, the light crude oil futures prices for the May delivery of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $3.56 to close at $50.42 per barrel, a decrease of 6.6%. The London Brent crude oil futures for May delivery fell by $3.55. At $55.55 a barrel, the decline was 6%. Analysts believe that the international crude oil market supply and demand conditions, the dollar correction and geopolitical factors jointly led the oil price "roller coaster" market, fluctuating international oil prices make methanol and other chemical products market has lost direction.

According to the latest research report from Fang Zheng in the mid-term, after entering April, the future trend of methanol depends on the following four aspects: First, the new Austrian New Energy, Rongxin and other methanol plants in the Northwest have been overhauled; some of the eastern enterprises have reduced their burdens, and the methanol market Supply will be tight, until late April, many devices gradually resume driving, the tight supply situation can only be eased. 2. Currently, the willingness of methanol downstream companies to purchase is poor, coupled with transportation and other reasons, the production companies in the northwest are not as smooth as February, and inventory may increase slightly in early April. 3. The Xingxing New Energy olefin plant in Zhejiang will start construction in April. The Yangtong Hengtong plant will also continue to extract and stockpile, and the traditional downstream construction in east China will gradually resume. The market demand has been boosted compared to the previous period. Fourth, the non-agricultural data released on April 3 was significantly lower than expected, causing the US dollar index to drastically drop, or favoring the international crude oil price trend, but this does not continue. Therefore, we should pay close attention to the trend of international crude oil prices.

The report said that at present, the trend of international crude oil prices is not clear, which will, to a certain extent, cause uncertainties in the price of domestic chemical futures prices.

Analysts said that since March, with the gradual warming of the weather, the operating rate of the device has increased compared with February, and the supply of goods has been sufficient. However, due to the weak downstream demand, the market is generally trading, and most of the stocks are pre-digested. At present, the shutdown of methanol plants such as Inner Mongolia New Ordaqi, Huating Zhongyi Coal Chemical Industry, Inner Mongolia Rongxin, Anhui Huayi Wuwei, etc., may result in tighter supply of methanol compared to the previous period, which may boost the spot price to a certain extent. .

Data show that in February domestic methanol imports 3,135,900 tons, a month-on-year increase of 120.39%, a decrease of 35.17%. In February, the import volume of methanol decreased month-on-month, mainly due to the fact that due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the demand for methanol from methanol downstream industries such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and methanol to olefins decreased. In addition, the accumulated port inventory accumulated in the previous period was high, and the supply of domestic methanol was sufficient. At the same time, the decrease in imports was conducive to alleviating the excess domestic methanol supply, and further brought the methanol supply back to normal levels.

In early March, influenced by the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rate of the formaldehyde market manufacturers was low, but the upstream methanol market was mainly upstream. The overall market for formaldehyde was relatively strong. The price in some areas rose slightly, and the downstream real estate industry did not pick up color. Demand is difficult to increase, and market transactions are still in general; the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong has increased to 1080-1150 yuan per ton. In the late mid-stream, the upstream methanol market started to fluctuate in a weak manner. The cost support for formaldehyde is limited. It is expected that the formaldehyde market will be underperforming in the next month. Larger.

During the same period, the acetic acid market rose steadily. Anhui Huayi, Yingdu, Hebei, and Shunda, Henan Province, began to rotate and discontinue their production from the beginning of the month. The acetic acid market rose at the beginning of the month, driven by the decline in both manufacturers’ inventory and operating rates and the recovery of downstream demand. The market price continued to be high until the end of the next year, but the main downstream ethylene acetate, PTA, etc. started to work only about 5-6 percent, downstream demand such as chloroacetic acid in North China was equally poor, the market was not buying well, and the first-phase equipment at the end of the month was suddenly stopped. Manufacturers used the device to stop production news to pull up the offer again, but lacked strong support for the demand side, and the market reaction was not enthusiastic.

With the increase of methanol price and the stabilization of the price of liquefied gas, the dimethyl ether market will be well supported, and the dimethyl ether market in Henan will rise significantly. After mid-month, the price of crude oil and liquefied gas fell, and the price of methanol fell. The dimethyl ether manufacturers' attitude was negative, and the downstream market demand was poor. The manufacturers reflected the general situation of shipping. In the short term, the overall market of DME is oscillating, and there may be downsides in some regions, but space is limited.