At present, the strategic direction of China's development of new energy vehicles is becoming more and more clear, and the corresponding market scale is expanding rapidly. The world's major multinational auto companies are “coveted†by China's huge potential market. Due to some subjective and objective reasons, multinational companies have not been able to seize the opportunities of China's new energy vehicle market, but they have stepped up their deployment of technology and product reserves to seek new local partners, and to "large-scale offensive" for future opportunities. Potential.
The industry believes that with the retreat and withdrawal of domestic financial subsidies and the substitution effect of new energy vehicles on traditional fuel vehicles, the Sino-foreign new energy vehicle war may break out within five years, when the market competition will be extremely cruel. Chinese enterprises should improve their R&D level as soon as possible, master their core technologies, and launch competitive products to occupy the local market. Otherwise, if multinational corporations come to the forefront of a dispute with me, it will become a "roadblocker" for China to move from a car-powered country to a car-powered country.
Multinational car companies are ready to go
Local companies occupy the forefront of new energy vehicle sales, which is quite different from the traditional fuel vehicle sales list for most of the joint ventures, but this does not mean that multinational companies have no strength in the field of new energy vehicles. Instead, they have already made a lot of fruitful technology research and product innovation work.
Throughout China's new energy vehicle market, private enterprises represented by BYD and Geely and state-owned enterprises represented by BAIC, SAIC and JAC are the absolute mainstays of this emerging field. In contrast, although foreign companies have “star†new energy models such as Tesla, BMW i, and Nissan Leaf, the overall sales of foreign brands in China are only a fraction of that of local companies.
Last year, for example, in the sales of China's new energy passenger car companies released by the National Passenger Cars Association in 2016, the top 8 sales were in 10,000 cars. They are: BYD, Geely Automobile, and Beiqi New Energy. Zhongtai, Chery, SAIC Passenger Car, Jianghuai Automobile, Jiangling Motors. Among them, BYD has accounted for one-fifth of China's new energy vehicle market with more than 100,000 vehicles, and it has won the global new energy vehicle sales crown. And companies such as BYD have formed relatively complete new energy vehicle technology routes including pure electric and plug-in hybrids, as well as new energy vehicle product lines including cars, SUVs and commercial vehicles.
Multinational companies are not without strength in the field of new energy vehicles. For example, Japanese brands began to develop new energy vehicles decades ago. The Toyota Prius is the world's largest-selling hybrid car. Nissan Leaf is the world's best-selling pure electric car. So why have the multinational companies that have always bet on China fail to dominate the Chinese new energy vehicle market?
According to industry analysts, the main reasons include: First, the performance (especially the battery energy density index) and cost reduction are the common bottlenecks faced by new energy vehicles around the world, and government subsidies have reduced the purchase of domestic new energy vehicles by consumers. Cost, which makes the products of multinational companies lose their price competitiveness. Second, even in a huge market like China that promotes new energy vehicles, the market share of new energy vehicles is less than 2%, and the process of replacing traditional fuel vehicles with new energy vehicles is subject to technology, cost, policy, oil price, supporting facilities, The influence of multiple factors such as consumer identification has led to a wait-and-see attitude. Third, multinational corporations and their joint ventures in China have huge investments in traditional fuel vehicle technology R&D and production facilities. They need to be diluted by extending the sales cycle of traditional vehicles. They are reluctant to see new energy vehicles to replace their own absolute advantages. Traditional car.
However, if major multinationals once worried about the new energy vehicle market, last year's two landmark events can prove that developed industrial countries and multinational companies have "ironed up" to develop new energy vehicles. First, the German Senate passed a proposal on the ban on fuel vehicles in 2030. Although Germany could not be put in place by 2030, at least the country with the leading fuel vehicle technology has begun to consider sending fuel cars to the grave. ". Second, many new energy vehicle brands and models emerging at the Paris Motor Show show that national auto companies have reached a consensus on low-carbon, intelligent and information-oriented vehicles, and the degree of emphasis has been unprecedentedly improved.
In this context, China, as the world's largest auto market, will undoubtedly continue to be a battleground for the military. In fact, since 2015, some multinational companies have launched new energy vehicle strategies for the Chinese market. For example, Volkswagen and SAIC signed a cooperation agreement to jointly open the localization process of new energy vehicles. Volkswagen and its two joint ventures plan to achieve the production of 15 new energy vehicles in China in 4 years; GM plans to have more than 10 new energy products in 5 years. Launched in China, the joint venture company SAIC GM plans to sell 300,000 new energy vehicles in China in 2020.
Since 2016, multinational companies have made progress from saying to doing. In launching new products: SAIC-GM launched the hybrid version of the Buick LaCrosse and Chevrolet Mai Rui Bao XL; Guangqi Honda launched the hybrid version of the Honda Accord; Beijing Hyundai launched the ninth-generation Sonata mixed version. So far, most multinational companies such as GM, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, BMW, and Hyundai have launched new energy products in the Chinese market.
In the search for new partners: In September last year, Volkswagen and Jianghuai announced that they would set up a joint venture to focus on the development, production and sales of new energy vehicles and parts. It is expected that the first pure electric passenger car will be launched in 2018. Industry insiders and the media noted that Jianghuai Volkswagen broke the restriction that a foreign car company can only have two joint ventures in the Chinese passenger car market. In November last year, Volkswagen and SAIC announced that they would introduce Audi brand new energy vehicle products in the joint venture SAIC Volkswagen. However, this incident triggered a collective rebound of Audi distributor of another joint venture of FAW-Volkswagen.
Local industry short board to be filled
Faced with the withdrawal of subsidies and the efforts of multinational companies, domestic new energy auto companies will face fierce market competition in the future. However, the reporter's investigation found that there are still some aspects of the development of the domestic new energy automobile industry.
China's new energy automobile industry will enter the post-subsidy era in 2020, and the survival and development of domestic enterprises will not continue to rely on government financial subsidies. At the same time, national automakers are transforming into new energy vehicles, waiting to enter the Chinese market.
Entrusted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the China Automotive Engineering Society organized hundreds of experts and scholars to participate in the research and development of the "Energy and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap": 2020 China's new energy vehicles will account for more than 7% of total sales, 2025 years More than 15%, accounting for more than 40% in 2030. It can be seen that the “burst point†of China's new energy vehicle market may come around 2025. At that time, multinational companies and Chinese local enterprises are basically in the same policy environment, and the two sides will fiercely fight for the huge space released by China's new energy vehicle market.
Cao Zhong, chairman of the new energy auto company Changjiang Automobile Co., said that although the new energy vehicle market is in the incubation period and technology reserve period, local brands occupy the majority share of the domestic market, but we should always be alert to the threat of international brands. Lessons from the traditional car era. Namely: When the size of China's passenger car market exceeded 10 million for the first time in 2009, international brands introduced a large number of models with diluted costs and prices to China, resulting in the share of Chinese brands in the car segment from 30% in 2010. 20% in 2015. This shows that when the Chinese traditional passenger car market entered an outbreak period, multinational companies became “people who picked peachesâ€.
The reason is that on the one hand, the investment in R&D of self-owned brands and the lack of technological innovation, on the other hand, the crushing of the brand and technical strength of multinational companies. The same is true for the development of new energy vehicles in China: If the Chinese brand new energy vehicles can form a strong competitive edge when the market enters an outbreak period, they can break through and continue to expand the site, and will lead the local automobile industry to develop and surpass; otherwise It will face the squeeze and coffers of multinational companies and their joint ventures.
The concerns of the industry are not without reason. On the one hand, multinational companies have considerable advantages in promoting their new energy vehicles in China: in terms of technology, multinational companies have strong reserves in core technologies such as vehicle and battery, and electronic control. Once the market is mature, they can quickly produce higher quality. New energy automotive products. In terms of market, multinational companies and their joint ventures have better brand recognition and a broader and more complete marketing network than Chinese brands. Many joint ventures that have been operating in China for many years may become a new energy auto company and directly launch an offensive.
On the other hand, Chen Qingtai, an old expert in the automotive industry and chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association, pointed out that China's new energy automobile industry is also facing the problem of lack of core components and independent core research and development. The reporter found that although China has a relatively rapid development in core technologies such as new energy vehicle batteries, the technical foundation is not solid, and many enterprises' upstream industrial chains are controlled by foreign capital. Some companies seem to sell a lot of new energy vehicles, but in reality they are more greedy, do not pay attention to technology research and development reserves, do not pay attention to improving design and technology, prefer the "takenism" assembly mode, and are willing to produce a large number of low-end and low-quality products. This has led to the hollowing out of enterprise technology and the “small, scattered and chaotic†market in some regions.
Zhang Shulin, former executive vice chairman of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and invited expert of National Development and Reform Commission, said that the battery cells of new energy auto companies can not be manufactured by themselves, but the battery pack must be their own. Some enterprises claim to have the core technology of new energy vehicles. But "I didn't say who did their battery packs do." The state has now strictly controlled this "takenism" approach in terms of access to new energy vehicles, but it is still not binding on some old companies. In the future, it will only rely on the market to play the role of survival of the fittest.
In addition, although new energy vehicles have been identified as strategic emerging industries, not all Chinese mainstream auto companies have performed well in this area. Some state-owned automobile groups have long participated in the 863 and 973 plans for new energy vehicles, but they have insufficient strength in the industrialization stage. As a result, among the six state-owned automobile groups that occupy the bulk of China's automobile industry, the overall sales of new energy passenger vehicles have entered the annual list. Less than half of the single front.
Industry analysts believe that three major reasons have led to the absence of some state-owned large groups in the field of new energy vehicles:
First, it is difficult for the big ship to turn around. It is difficult to give up the heavy assets and watch the hearts. Some experts say that enterprises are rational, they have invested heavily in fuel vehicles, and now the market share of new energy vehicles is still very small, why should we transfer power to new energy vehicles?
Second, the joint venture is regarded as a “profit cow†and is satisfied with “lying money to make moneyâ€. A deputy general manager of a state-owned car company said, "The state-owned large group has the largest laboratory, the largest number of technicians, and the most adequate funds. However, looking at the bulletin catalogue of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, it is known that their electric vehicle industrialization results are relatively small. Because state-owned enterprises are backed by joint ventures, the days are too good." The head of a new energy auto company predicted that “some state-owned large groups may continue to rely on joint ventures to produce electric vehicles in the future.â€
The third is the reasons for enterprise management and assessment orientation. Some experts said that some state-owned large groups are not performing well in the new energy vehicle market, not the ability problem, but the institutional mechanism. If the reform is not deepened, as new energy vehicles gradually replace traditional fuel vehicles and market competition intensifies, it is not ruled out that some enterprises will face the fate of restructuring or elimination.
Practice internal strength and enhance competitiveness
Experts suggest that Chinese companies should cherish limited time, have a sense of urgency, seriously study the new development trend of new energy vehicles, adjust the company's strategy, and work hard. At present, the technical barriers to new energy vehicles have not yet fully formed, and the business model is not yet Under certain circumstances, achieve breakthroughs in innovation in order to take the initiative in the future competition.
The development of new energy vehicles is the only way for China to move from a big automobile country to a strong country. Experts believe that the next five years, especially before 2020, is an important window for the development of China's new energy vehicle industry and a key period for the improvement of international competitiveness.
"I am very anxious because the opportunities are fleeting." Chen Qingtai once said. He believes that China is facing the most significant technological revolution in the history of the world's automobiles, and it is a "natural opportunity" for technological self-reliance, transcendence, and reversal of the situation of people. Compared with the major automobile producing countries, although there are still some gaps in China's electric vehicles, they are not as big as fuel vehicles, and the development route and process of new energy vehicle technology are very different from those of fuel vehicles. If China seizes the opportunity, It is entirely possible to change the international competition landscape in the field of new energy vehicles.
Industry insiders and experts from all sides suggest:
First, China's new energy automobile industry should accelerate the research and development of core technologies and stop the inertia of traditional vehicles relying on foreign technology. History has shown that China’s failure in the traditional fuel vehicle sector is subject to the lack of mastery of core technology; the introduction of technology and Sino-foreign joint ventures is not the ultimate way to build a car power. If China wants to gain the upper hand in the future "new war" of new energy vehicles, in the final analysis, it is necessary for local enterprises to take the road of independent innovation under open conditions. If you continue to rely on "foreign technology", it will be difficult for local companies that are hollow in their own technology and rely on third-party procurement to reduce costs and participate in competition.
Xu Wei, assistant general manager of Shanghai Jieneng Automotive Technology Co., Ltd., said that in some joint ventures, both Chinese and foreign parties have been able to “head meet and compare technology†in the new energy field. In the past, in the traditional car field, "we can only wait for multinational companies to feed." Local enterprises must learn this lesson from the development of new energy vehicles. They can no longer count on multinational corporations. From now on, they must independently research and develop and engage in dialogue with foreign parties to achieve technological self-reliance in the future.
Second, the development of new energy vehicles in China depends on technological breakthroughs in core components such as batteries, motors, and electronic controls. Chen Qingtai said that electric vehicles are profoundly changing the entire parts system, including batteries, electric drives, hardware and software involved in electronic control, sensing sensing components, operation and execution devices, and computational information transmission and navigation. Hardware and software involved in collision avoidance. The scope of the entire automotive parts is expanding greatly. There are still gaps in technology in many fields. Technical barriers have not yet been formed, and there is huge room for innovation. Domestic component companies should seize the opportunity of rebuilding the new energy vehicle supply chain, strengthen and expand, and provide strong support for the healthy development of China's new energy vehicles.
The third is to force the car companies to get rid of subsidy dependence as soon as possible, so that the market can fully play its role in resource allocation. To make the new energy automobile industry bigger and stronger, relying on subsidies is not a long-term policy. In the end, it is necessary to establish a long-term mechanism for marketization and play a decisive role in the market. Therefore, enterprises cannot put the foundation of developing new energy vehicles on policy subsidies, but they must truly accept the points system, self-hematopoietic, independent research and development, and launch products that meet market demands, becoming the protagonist of marketization.
The reporter found that although there is no financial subsidy in China, multinational companies including Toyota still do not change their original intentions, reduce costs through technological upgrading and localization, and strive to reduce the cost of hybrid vehicles to be comparable to traditional fuel vehicles. This gets the market.
Fourth, the development of new energy vehicles is a national strategy, and state-owned large groups also have an unshirkable responsibility. The industry believes that the state-owned large group has a large R & D team, strong financial strength and corresponding policy support, should respond to the national call, give priority to the development of independent capabilities in the new energy vehicle journey, enhance the competitiveness of independent brands, become a car power, Promote the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the main force.
At the same time, the state's assessment of state-owned enterprises should be further linked to the national strategy of developing new energy vehicles. In the assessment mechanism, the assessment weight of state-owned enterprises' independent innovation should be further increased, and the state-owned enterprises should be guided to combine short-term benefits with long-term development capabilities.
Ball Valve,High Pressure Ball Valve,Floating Ball Valve,Electric Ball Valve
Wuzhong Instrument Co., Ltd. , https://www.wzivalve.com