With the approach of 2017, the “new energy vehicle post-subsidy era†has once again become a hot topic in the industry. What exactly is the post-subsidy era for new energy vehicles? What are the characteristics of the post-subsidy era of new energy vehicles under the new situation, and what are the hidden trends? How should new energy auto industry chain companies cope with the post-subsidy era under the new situation?
1. What is the post-subsidy era for new energy vehicles?
The post-subsidy era of new energy vehicles is relative to the subsidy era, so let’s look at the era of new energy vehicle subsidies first! 2015 is a typical representative of the era of new energy vehicle subsidies. The following is a brief review of the 2015 new energy vehicles from the policy level, promotion volume, subsidy funds, and fraud compensation.
1. Policy level: In 2015, the national new energy vehicle incentive and guidance policies reached more than 20, nearly 40 provinces and municipalities issued nearly 50 policies, more than 20 provinces and cities according to the national standard 1:1 subsidies
According to the incomplete statistics of the electric vehicle resource network, there are more than 20 new energy vehicle encouragement and guidance policies introduced at the national level in 2015, and nearly 50 new energy vehicle incentive and guidance policies issued by nearly 40 provinces and cities, including 20 The remaining provinces and cities are subsidized according to the national standard 1:1 for some or all models: Beijing, Wuhan, Tianjin, Xi'an, Guangzhou, Huizhou, Qingdao, Weifang, Ningbo, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Wuhu, Hefei, Zhangzhou, Shijiazhuang, Harbin, Shanxi, Fujian, Hunan, Hebei and other places.
How does the central government subsidize new energy vehicles in 2015? According to the "Notice on Continued Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" (Jian [2013] No. 551), the maximum subsidy for pure electric passenger vehicles in 2015 is 54,000 yuan, and the maximum subsidy for plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles is 31,500 yuan. The pure electric bus has a maximum subsidy of 500,000 yuan, the plug-in hybrid bus has a maximum subsidy of 250,000 yuan, the pure electric special vehicle has a subsidy of 1,800 yuan per kWh of battery capacity, and the fuel cell passenger car subsidizes 180,000 yuan. 450,000 yuan.
2. Promotion quantity: In 2015, a total of 331,092 new energy vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of 3.4 times.
(1) Total amount analysis. According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2015, new energy vehicles produced 340,471 vehicles and sold 331,092 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 3.3 times and 3.4 times respectively.
(2) Analysis of sales composition. In 2015, a total of 207,382 new energy passenger vehicles were sold, accounting for nearly 63% of the total sales of new energy vehicles . Among them, pure electric passenger cars sold 146,719 units, a three-fold increase year-on-year; plug-in hybrid passenger cars sold 60,663 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.5 times. A total of 123,710 new energy commercial vehicles were sold, accounting for 37% of the total sales of new energy vehicles. Among them, pure electric commercial vehicles sold 100,763 units, an increase of 10.6 times; plug-in hybrid commercial vehicles sold 22,947 units, an increase of 88.8%.
(3) Analysis of the amount of promotion in various places. According to the statistics of 21 provinces and cities in the electric vehicle resource network, by the end of 2015, the provinces and cities with the highest cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were: Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Jiangsu, Anhui, Zhejiang, Hangzhou, Hebei, Hunan, Tianjin, Qingdao, Fujian, Xi'an, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Jinhua, Ningbo, Langfang, Shaoxing, Liaocheng, Ningde. (Related reading: Shanghai, the number of new energy vehicles in 21 provinces and cities ranked first in Shanghai)
Shanghai ranked first in the number of new energy vehicle promotion in the previous round. According to the data of Shanghai New Energy Automobile Promotion Office, in 2015, Shanghai New Energy Vehicles promoted and applied 44,247 vehicles, which was 4.15 times higher than the 2014 promotion of 10,644 vehicles. Since 2013, it has promoted 55,406 vehicles. The analysis believes that the achievement of promotion results has much to do with the “free license fee†for new energy vehicles implemented in Shanghai.
3. Subsidy funds: From 2013 to 2015, the central government allocated 28.444 billion yuan, and the local government allocated more than 20 billion yuan; of which, the central government allocated funds of 17.5 billion yuan in 2015.
How much has the state subsidized for new energy vehicles in the past few years? On July 6, 2016, a new energy automobile industry development symposium chaired by Vice Premier Ma Kai of the State Council was held in Xi'an. In the supervision report on the promotion and application of new energy vehicles read by Xiao Yaqing, director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, from 2013 to 2015, the central government allocated a total of 28.444 billion yuan in subsidies and incentive funds for new energy vehicles. Among them, in 2013-2014, the actual payment of purchase subsidy funds was 10.19 billion yuan, and 14 provinces and municipalities received a reward of 770 million yuan for the construction of the central government's financial facilities. In 2015, the pre-admission of subsidies was RMB17.5 billion. Local finances allocated a total of more than 20 billion yuan in subsidies from 2013 to 2015.
In addition, according to the “Notice on the Local Inspection and Budget Openment and the Special Inspection of the New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Grant Fund†issued by the Ministry of Finance Press Office on September 8, 2016, since 2009, the central government has subsidized the promotion and application of new energy vehicles. As of the end of 2015, the central government has allocated a total of 33.435 billion yuan in subsidies.
4. Cheat verification: 5,547 vehicles involving 5 typical enterprises, involving central subsidies exceeding 1 billion yuan
Under the strong promotion of the policy, China's new energy vehicles achieved rapid development in 2015, and some problems began to appear. The problem of fraudulent compensation has aroused widespread concern in society. The verification of new energy vehicle fraud has been carried out for the first half of the year since the beginning of 2016. According to the "Notice on the Local Public Accounts Disclosure and the Special Inspection of the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles", the Ministry of Finance has carried out special inspections on 90 major new energy vehicle manufacturers, which have been obtained and reported in 2013-2015. The central government subsidized funds of 401,000 new energy vehicles, and checked the operating status of 133,000 new energy vehicles sold. The inspection found that some enterprises were suspected of defrauding financial subsidies in violation of relevant laws and regulations. Some vehicles were not sold to consumers to declare subsidies in advance, and many vehicles were idle after receiving subsidies. In the report, five typical cases were exposed, namely, Suzhou Jim West Bus Manufacturing Co., Ltd., Jinlong United Automobile Industry (Suzhou) Co., Ltd., Shenzhen Wuzhoulong Automobile Co., Ltd., Chery Wanda Guizhou Bus Co., Ltd., Henan Shaolin Bus Co., Ltd. A total of 3,547 vehicles involved in the problem, involving more than 1 billion yuan in the amount of central financial subsidies.
In addition to the above five companies, Chongqing Hengtong Bus Company and Lifan Passenger Car Company were also punished by the Ministry of Finance for problem vehicles. And this may be just the tip of the iceberg of the new energy vehicle subsidy verification results.
2. What are the characteristics and trends of the post-subsidy era of new energy vehicles?
The above briefly reviews the basic situation of the development of domestic new energy vehicles in the subsidy era in 2015. On the one hand, the positive effects of the growth and production of new energy vehicles are more than three times, and on the other hand, the problem of fraudulent compensation seriously affects the normalization of the new energy automobile industry. Unfavorable consequences such as development, structural overcapacity, and increased safety incidents. Corresponding to the era of subsidies, what is the era of subsidies for new energy vehicles? In 2016, it is the “year of adjustment†for the development of new energy vehicles in China. Presumably every new energy vehicle industry has a deep understanding of “adjustmentâ€. What will happen in 2017 after the adjustment? What are the characteristics and trends of the post-subsidy era of new energy vehicles?
(1) The amount of subsidies is reduced.
The reduction in the amount of subsidies is one of the notable signs of the post-subsidy era. According to the "Notice on the Financial Support Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2016-2020" (Cai Jian [2015] No. 134), the subsidy standards for other vehicles except fuel cell vehicles will be appropriately degraded in 2017-2020, among which: 2017-2018 The annual subsidy standard decreased by 20% on the basis of 2016, and the subsidy standard of 2019-2020 decreased by 40% on the basis of 2016. According to the new energy vehicle subsidy adjustment program exposed online on November 22, the subsidy for new energy bus subsidies will exceed 20%, and the subsidies for new energy trucks and special vehicles will also be greatly adjusted. (Related reading: If the 2017 new energy vehicle subsidy policy is like this, what do you think / what to do?)
In addition to the reduction in the central financial subsidy, the amount of local subsidies may also be significantly reduced. The network transmission adjustment program has imposed restrictions on local subsidy standards, stipulating that except for fuel cell vehicles , the local financial subsidy ceiling for other types of vehicles does not exceed 50% of the central government bicycle subsidy, and it is pointed out that local finance includes local subsidies at all levels. The sum of the provinces, cities, districts/counties, etc. If the above adjustment plan is implemented, the local finance will be a history of 1:1 subsidies according to the central government. This measure may be related to the “local protection†of new energy vehicles that are widely criticized.
(2) The subsidy threshold is raised.
The increase in subsidy thresholds means that there are some models that can be subsidized according to the original rules, and subsidies will not be available in 2017. Under the new energy car allowance adjustment programs online exposure, new energy passenger cars or to increase the energy density of the battery system quality, lower power consumption and other technical threshold of one hundred kilometers requirement of working conditions in 2017; new energy buses, the unit load The mass energy consumption, the total mass of the battery system accounted for the whole vehicle quality ratio, the non-fast charge type pure electric bus driving range, the non-fast charge type pure electric bus battery system energy density, the fast charge type pure electric bus fast charging rate, plug Technical requirements for electric fuel-saving rate of electric hybrid (including extended-program) passenger cars; new energy trucks and special-purpose vehicles, or will increase the energy requirements of battery system energy consumption per unit load, energy consumption per ton, and power consumption per ton of kilometers.
(3) The inclusive policy shifts to the survival of the fittest.
On August 12, 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “Regulations on the Administration of New Energy Vehicle Manufacturing Enterprises and Product Access (Revised Draft for Soliciting Opinions)†to adjust the scope of new energy vehicles to pure electric vehicles , plug-in hybrid vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles. Automobiles have strengthened the safety monitoring of new energy vehicle products, requiring real-time monitoring of the entire life cycle of all new energy vehicles that have been sold. In terms of enterprise access, the adjustment to "should have the development capability of the control system, as well as the integration and matching capabilities of the vehicle energy and drive system", the development of the control system has become a necessary condition.
On November 15, 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on Further Improving the Safety Supervision and Application of New Energy Vehicles" (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [2016] No. 377), and simultaneously issued the "Safety Technical Conditions for Electric Buses". According to the contents of the document, since January 1, 2017, the passenger car model that newly applied for the "Announcement" and the new application for the "Recommended Model Catalogue" using the ternary battery should be submitted at the same time to satisfy the "Safety Technical Conditions for Electric Buses". The third-party test report; before July 1, 2017, the existing bus models in the "Announcement" should be submitted to the third-party test report. Before January 1, 2017, all new energy vehicle manufacturers should establish a monitoring platform as soon as possible and complete the docking test with the national platform; from January 1, 2017, the new model of the "announcement" should complete the vehicle terminal-enterprise platform. - Data transmission test of the national platform; before April 1, 2017, the existing models in the "Announcement" should complete the data transmission test.
(4) Transformation of financial direct subsidies to market-based incentives
In August 2016, the General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Measures for the Management of Carbon Equity for New Energy Vehicles†(Draft for Comment), aiming to establish an effective mechanism for the development of fuel vehicles to support the development of new energy vehicles, and to support the financial and tax support policies that have been degraded. Become an important institutional guarantee for the development of new energy vehicles. In the consultation draft, the carbon quota management method was implemented in 2017 and officially implemented in 2018.
In September 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology began to solicit opinions on the Interim Measures for the Parallel Management of Enterprise Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Points (Draft for Comment). The opinion draft clearly stipulates that for the passenger car enterprises with annual output or import volume of traditional energy passenger vehicles in China of more than 50,000 vehicles, the annual ratio of new energy vehicle points shall be set. In 2016 and 2017, the proportion of new energy vehicles will not be assessed. From 2018 to 2020, the proportion of new energy vehicles will be 8%, 10% and 12% respectively.
With the continuous growth of new energy vehicle production and sales, large-scale fiscal and taxation support policies have been unsustainable. The above two drafts have the intention of establishing a benign mechanism for traditional fuel vehicles to feed new energy vehicles. The direct financial support will shift to a market-based incentive mechanism.
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