The situation of summer grain purchase is grim, the market is facing the direction of choice

The situation of summer grain purchase is grim, the market is facing the direction of choice

Market purchases and sales have slowed down, and wheat prices have been running at a high level.

Recently, with the approach of the new season wheat market, the focus of the market has gradually shifted. The milling company is mainly focusing on digesting inventory while reducing the operating rate, and gradually begins to control the purchasing rhythm. However, due to the lack of improvement in the overall supply and demand pattern in the pre-new market, the wheat prices in the main producing areas are still mostly in the high range. Although the wheat price in the higher price range in the previous period has dropped slightly, the magnitude is relatively small, basically between 10-20 yuan/ton.

On May 12, the price of common wheat in Jinan, Shandong Province was 2,500-2540 yuan/ton, the price of Shijiazhuang in Hebei Province was 2480-2520 yuan/ton, the price of Henan Zhengzhou was 2,450-2,480 yuan/ton, and the price of Jiangsu Xuzhou was 2,440. The yuan/ton is about the same as last weekend, and the local fluctuations are small.

How long can a strong wheat price last? The author believes that there will be no major changes in the tight supply and demand situation in the wheat market before the new wheat market. Although the price of wheat is not enough, the basic stability is still hopeful.

On the one hand, the continuous circulation of the wheat market has basically bottomed out. Although the local sales subsidy policy has eased the regional supply, in 2014, the National Reserve Wheat was still difficult to enter the market in most areas due to the high auction reserve price. If the country's low purchase price of wheat in 2015 is not put on the market, it is estimated that the short-term tight supply and demand pattern of the wheat market will continue.

On the other hand, with the approach of the new wheat market approaching, the market's attention to Chen Mai has decreased, but because the new wheat has a certain period of maturity, and can not be immediately processed, some milling companies will purchase in moderation. Part of the wheat to maintain production. Supported by the procurement cost of wheat in the country's temporary reserves, the market price of Chen wheat is still difficult to fall in the short term. Even if there is a “turning point” in the market, I am afraid that it will wait until the new grain is listed.

The flour market is running smoothly and the price of bran is picking up slightly

Due to the increase in production costs due to rising wheat prices, the enthusiasm of milling companies to start work is not high. Although the price of bran has rebounded slightly recently, the processing of enterprises is still in a general loss. The market expects that in the later stage, when the flour market gradually enters the low season of consumption, the operating rate of the milling enterprises will still have room for further decline. The raw material wheat stocks of the enterprises before the new ones will continue to be lower than the average level of the same period of the previous year.

On May 12th, the ex-factory price of special powder for milling enterprises in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province was 3160-3200 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of special powder in Dezhou, Shandong Province was 3160-3220 yuan/ton, and the price of special powder in Zhoukou area of ​​Henan Province was 3100-3160. Yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of special powder in Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province was around 3,180 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as last weekend.

According to the data of the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, the price of flour in 36 large and medium-sized cities nationwide has remained stable. The rich and strong powders maintained 2.62 yuan/kg and the standard powder was 2.32 yuan/kg.

Due to the decline in the operating rate of the milling enterprises and the decrease in supply, the price of bran has been supported by the stage since May, and the prices of many places have generally rebounded slightly. At present, the ex-factory price of bran in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province is 900-920 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price in Zhengzhou, Henan is 900-920 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price in Jinan, Shandong is 920 yuan/ton, and that in Xuzhou, Jiangsu is 960-980 yuan/ton. Weekend rose 20-40 yuan / ton.

Affected by the slight increase in the price of bran, the processing losses of the milling enterprises in the main producing areas have recently decreased. The monitoring shows that the current theoretical processing loss of the milling enterprises in Shijiazhuang, Hebei is 58 yuan / ton, the theoretical processing loss of the milling enterprises in Jinan, Shandong is 60 yuan / ton, the theoretical processing loss of the milling enterprises in Zhengzhou, Henan is 49 yuan / ton, three The average loss of the land is about 56 yuan / ton, and the loss is about 10 yuan / ton lower than 76 yuan / ton a week ago.

The temporary storage auction transaction picked up and the transaction hit another new high.

On May 10, the national market-based wheat auction plan sold 1,165,100 tons, the actual turnover was 142,900 tons, and the turnover rate was 12.27%, which was the highest since June last year.

From the market point of view: Jiangsu wheat auction is more attractive, this time plans to sell 306,577 tons of wheat, the actual turnover of 13,1975 tons, an increase of 226,318 tons per week; turnover rate of 43.05%, an increase of 16.16 percentage points. Anhui plans to sell 243,959 tons of wheat, the actual turnover of 4,556 tons, an increase of 2013 tons by week; the turnover rate of 1.87%, an increase of 0.82 percentage points.

Henan plans to sell 308,134 tons of wheat, the actual turnover of 600 tons, a decrease of 6,660 tons per week; the turnover rate was 0.19%, down 2.13 percentage points from the week. Shandong plans to sell 23,928 tons of white wheat in 2014, and Hubei plans to sell 272,687 tons of wheat, which continues to be auctioned.

On May 11th, the national temporary storage of imported wheat put a total of 50,840 tons of US No. 2 soft red winter wheat in 2013, the actual turnover was 3,500 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons per week; the turnover rate was 6.88%, and the weekly increase was 3.79 percentage points.

Judging from the transaction status of the temporary storage wheat, the recovery of the transaction was mainly concentrated in Jiangsu Province, and the sales of 132,000 tons of wheat accounted for 92.37% of the total transaction volume. The reason is that the province has introduced a subsidy policy for stimulating wheat sales, while other provinces have no sales subsidy policy, and the country's temporary storage wheat is still difficult to enter the market due to high prices.

According to the aggregated data, as of May 10, the cumulative turnover of policy-oriented wheat in 2014 was 7,144,300 tons. Among them, the cumulative turnover of Jiangsu Province was 4,419,600 tons, the accumulated turnover of Anhui Province was 1,465,600 tons, the cumulative turnover of Hubei Province was 368,300 tons, and the cumulative turnover of Henan Province was 1,160,700 tons.

New wheat production is estimated differently, and the market is facing the direction of choice.

Recently, some domestic institutions have made preliminary estimates on China's wheat production situation in 2016, but the estimates are quite different and the differences are large.

In late April, the Ministry of Agriculture’s market early warning expert committee released a report. It is estimated that the area of ​​wheat planted in China will be 361.8 million mu in 2016, down by about 300,000 mu year-on-year; the output is expected to be 130.1 million tons, a slight decrease of 100,000 tons, which may have appeared since 2004. Year-to-date reduction in production in the past 12 years.

In May, the National Grain and Oils Information Center made a forecast for 2016 national wheat production. It is estimated that the country's wheat planting area will be 24.21 million hectares this year, an increase of 69,000 hectares compared with 2015; the national wheat production will be 5.383 tons/ha, which is 10 kg/ha less than 2015; the national wheat output in 2016 is 130.31 million tons, an increase of 12.3 compared with 2015. Ten thousand tons.

At present, the wheat market is on the verge of resigning from the old and welcoming the new. The market's mentality is inevitable with fluctuations in the influencing factors. However, the author believes that whether it is docking the new wheat market or the future wheat acquisition this summer, it is more appropriate for each market entity to respond with a peaceful attitude.

For the purchase and sale of Chenmai market, although the situation of the new wheat market is still tight, the demand for the terminal market will not continue, but the supply and demand of the market will basically maintain a relative balance. Wheat prices are expected to remain firm in the short term, but potential market risks are also increasing in the later period. It is recommended that each grain-holding entity reasonably arrange the grain supply timing and pay close attention to the time to sell grain. In view of the fact that the new wheat processing has a post-maturing period, the milling company can purchase a portion of the wheat in accordance with the strategy of ordering the goods to maintain the normal production.

This year's summer grain purchase situation is more severe, and the contradiction and pressure of purchasing and storage are prominent. It has been widely recognized by all walks of life. Especially in the case of high levels of policy food stocks in various countries, the storage capacity in some areas is generally tense. Whether the shortage of warehouses will affect the normal operation of the acquisition, whether the national policy acquisition implementation standards are strict or not, and the number of acquisitions will reach a certain level, these are still unknown. The complexity of the summer harvest situation makes it difficult to predict what kind of pattern will be interpreted in the future acquisition market. However, one thing is certain, that is, because the country continues to implement a low purchase price policy on wheat, the impact and dominant role of policy acquisitions on the market will not change. Therefore, the main task of each market entity is to actively prepare for the preparations before the acquisition, prepare for the rain, and prepare for the summer harvest.

The international wheat market is abundant, and the US wheat shorts have closed up.

The US Department of Agriculture's May supply and demand report showed that global wheat production is expected to reach 727 million tons, a record high. Due to the increase in beginning stocks, global wheat supply in 2016/17 is expected to increase by 2% over the previous year; global wheat ending stocks in 2016/17 are expected to reach a record 257.3 million tons, an increase of 14.4 million tons over the previous year. The supply of wheat in the international market is abundant and the fundamental outlook remains bearish.

Last Friday, driven by market short-covering, US wheat futures prices closed up, hitting a one-and-a-half-week high in intraday trading. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures July contract was reported at 4.74-3/4 US dollars per bushel, which climbed 11 cents or 2.4% this week.

According to the export sales report released by the US Department of Agriculture, the US wheat export sales in 2015-16 increased by 294,900 tons in the week ending May 5, an increase of 65% from the previous week and an increase of 24% from the previous four-week average. Net exports of wheat exports in 2016-17 were 387,900 tons, both higher than analysts expected.

On May 12, the FOB price of US No. 2 soft red winter wheat delivered in July was US$187.4/ton, which was RMB1217/ton; the total cost after paying taxes to the Chinese port was about 1,652 yuan/ton, down 182 over the same period of last year. yuan / tonne.

The US Department of Agriculture's May supply and demand report predicts that China's 2016/17 wheat imports are estimated at 3.2 million tons, and the 2015/16 wheat imports are estimated at 3 million tons.

(Original title: Summer grain harvest is approaching wheat facing direction choice)